@Ilovemuffins1 @HarryScrotmmm I'm not speaking for everyone on the board and have done extremely well and you can look me up on all the BO's I have had this year alone- I'll name some for you $TERNS-$APLS-$AKRO tell me what you got?
$CRMD Quick look over at the gainers for today and I saw this grouping. How many Buyouts or deals did we have in this group? Good lord. Will $CRMD be added to that distinguished list? I think so.
For fun, the 2 picks above the screen grab was $AKRO, one below was $NUVL. $TERN? $VRNA? Some real life changes in here.
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$ORKA this reminds me of $AKRO when they did a similar offering into P3 results which were highly optimistic. They took the shares down afterwards to collect more. Good luck!
$ALT $ALT sits at ~$525M+ cash post offering, putting it on par with $ETNB and $AKRO heading into P3. While the $225M raise kills the financing risk, the execution feels defensive as if it is done out of desperation. Management accepted dilutive terms (warrants + low pricing) rather than waiting for AUD or histology data suggesting a "take the money and run" approach over confidence in a higher future valuation. ALT is now financially competitive, but the key gap remains: $AKRO and $ETNB have validated histology and fibrotic end points, while ALT is still leaning on weight loss + MRI-PDFF. Durso secured the runway, but now the data has to do the heavy lifting to offset the dilutiion. Hold tight, this would be a bumpy ride! Not a financial advice, do your own DD
@PashaGainz $AKRO buyout was expected. No one was surprised by that...not even $ALT. Can't speak for ETNB, but I think that caught folks by surpise...but they were well in the background. Poor examples Pashy.
@PashaGainz You forgot to mention $ALT has one thing that $AKRO and $ETNB didn't...a FAILED drug for one of their MASH P2b trial Primary Endpoints.
So yes, you're full of hopium. Always have been. And this isn't conviction, this is trying to save face.
Little secret, no one missed you when you were gone.
$ALT Everyone keeps asking about timing like there’s some tell in the tape or meeting timing giveaways. There isn’t.
My thesis on $ALT timing isn’t based on hopium. It’s based on historical facts from recent MASH deals like $AKRO and $ETNB. Go back and look at the charts before their deals.
Price action didn’t signal it.
Options flow didn’t signal it.
Volume didn’t signal it.
Short interest didn’t signal it.
Conference meetings didn’t signal it.
Nothing in the public market telegraphed the announcement. Then boom. Out of nowhere. After the fact, when the companies released board minutes and transaction details, what did we learn? They had been in discussions with 8–10 big pharma players for 12–24 months prior to the announcement. Active dialogue. Ongoing engagement. Multiple counterparties. All while retail was staring at daily candles trying to decode “signals.” There was no incubation period visible to the public. The only consistent pattern? Deals occurred during or around Phase 3 execution. That’s the key. So when I frame a partnership or acquisition thesis for Alt, I’m not guessing dates. I’m anchoring to precedent. MASH assets with strong Phase 2 data enter Phase 3, strategic engagement intensifies, and at some point during that window a transaction materializes. Could it be earlier? Yes. Could it be later? Yes. But history shows you won’t see it coming in the tape. It just happens. That’s why I focus on fundamentals, design, differentiation, and strategic positioning, NOT daily noise. Timing is unknown to us. Precedent is not.
