This is not investment advice but $VSTM now trades for $3.50 per share. Using VSTM's 3/31/26 cap table, VSTM's fully diluted market cap is ~$350MM & its enterprise value is $250MM.
VSTM's combo is projected to generate $70.5MM in year 1 product sales so VSTM trades at 5.1X TTM sales. CTIC, whose product Vonjo generated $76.2MM in year 1 product sales, was acquired for $1.7B. $CTIC had no other pipeline of substance & Vonjo had 11 years of patent life remaining when acquired. The attached graph compares product sales by quarter post launch of VSTM's combo v Vonjo (and Fintepla which was also acquired for $1.7B but had 1 pipeline product of some value).
Mizuho forecast VSTM's combo peak sales @ $700 - $900MM. LGSOC is a brutal cancer & unfortunately LGSOC patients have few treatment options.
This is not investment advice because we have no idea what will happen to VSTM nor 7375 but analytics suggest VSTM's risk v reward profile c/b compelling (excl mgmt competence issues).
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$VSTM reports Q126 sales of its LGSOC combo Thursday after the close
For its 1st 2 full fiscal quarters post launch, sales of VSTM's combo therapy have tracked sales of CTIC's Vonjo & are handily higher than ZGNX's Fintepla. Both $CTIC & $ZGNX were acquired for enterprise values of $1.7B. If you believe actual product sales are a barometer, again a barometer, for valuation potential then investors should follow VSTM.
If VSTM's Q126 sales are on par or beat analyst estimates then it may affirm VSTM's LGSOC hypothetical M&A exit valuation could be on par with CTIC & ZGNX. Just remember VSTM fully diluted shares are roughly 20% higher.
We'll add a comparison to $DAWN Ojemda sales (VSTM running roughly 1/3 less but DAWN exited at ~$2.2B ish). The dots connect
VSTM has a 2nd asset showing genuine promise in solid tumors with a KRAS 12D mutation (very roughly 15% of all solid tumors, higher in some & lower in others). Updated data is due in Q226.
This is not investment advice. $XBI
Analysts project sales of $VSTM 's LGSOC combo therapy for its 1st 4 full quarters on the market to = $CTIC 's VONJO Year 1 sales. CTIC was acquired for $1.7B just after reporting first full year sales. CTIC's Vonjo had 10 years to patent exp when acquired. VSTM's MC = $578MM @ $6.58/sh as of 4/19/26. VSTM net cash/debt = $130MM @ 12/31/25.
If actual product sales post FDA approval are a barometer of valuation potential, we recommend investors research VSTM for themselves. While CTIC had no other pipeline of substance, VSTM has a therapy dubbed 7375 that is showing compelling initial results in cancers with a specific biomarker. Put simplest, there is evidence VSTM is deeply undervalued. This is not investment advice but should the $XBI continue its recent torrid gains?
It is also interesting to note analysts project $VSTM to outsell ZGNX's Fintepla 1st year sales by ~2X. ZGNX also exited at a $1.7B M&A EV (though we understand ZGNX pipeline had more potential but WTF do we know).
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$VSTM
The attachment shows actual & analyst projected VSTM AK/FAK combo product sales by quarter post FDA approval compared to 3 M&A exits including recent $AVDL exit (& NUVB). FWIW the VSTM comparison to NUVB in this manner is not appropriate.
VSTM combo sales appear more or less consistent with all 3 peers who exited for EVs of $1.7 to $2.1B (though obviously TAM is not considered nor pipelines). However, $CTIC Vonjo had roughly the same TAM as LGSOC, a limited patent life & no other pipeline of substance where VSTM has 7375 that has shown promise.
This is not investment advice. VSTM's valuation has been heading consistently lower since VSTM implemented meaningful C-suite changes in mid-December 2025. VSTM's share price is off almost 50% from its December 2025 peak
However, if actual product sales are a barometer of value potential then investors should consider researching VSTM for themselves.
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$DAWN was up 20% today on meaningful trading volumes. We have no idea if a DAWN M&A exit is finally imminent. We're only sharing an observation
Attached find M&A valuations paid 8 DAWN peers as multiples of revenue forecasts prepared by the acquiree's management. We provide the same for DAWN using analyst consensus.
It's our experience most of these comm'l-stage bios forecast to get up to $800 - $1B/year in product sales are acquired for enterprise values of $1.7 - $2.1B. DAWN noted it ended the year with $441 cash before paying very roughly $100MM (net) for $MRSN
There are ~120MM fully diluted DAWN shares @ 9/30/25 incl 14MM ISOs of which ~9.2MM were vested. All are under water. WAEP = ~$16/sh
$CTIC may be a good peer for 10-year multiple comps because Vonjo had 11 years to patent expiration when acquired. We understand Ojemda's patent expires in June 2035.
See MRSN's financial forecast provided DAWN (peak sales = $200MM)
Just for entertainment. This is not investment advice $XBI $IBB
$DAWN is rumored to be in active M&A negotiations. Thank you @RonIsWrong
$CTIC appears the perfect DAWN peer for potential valuation. CTIC's Vonjo had the same patent life at FDA approval & both product similar gross margins. CTIC was acquired for an enterprise value of $1.7B
Attached is a graph that compares Ojemda v Vonjo US product revenues by quarter post launch (not total revenues...just US product sales). Ojemda is outselling Vonjo comfortably. Analysts forecast DAWN to generate 20% more revenue dollars over the next 10 years compared to the revenue forecast prepared by CTIC management/BOD. This is noted in the insert
If Ojemda's EV is worth 20% more than Vonjo that's roughly $2B in DAWN valuation. Add DAWN's $400MM cash & you're at $2.4B or very very roughly $22/share in hypothetical M&A valuation, perhaps less the cost to complete Firefly.
This is not investment advice. This is for entertainment purposes only. We have no idea if DAWN will be acquired.
Congrats to DAWN. $DAWN US product sales by quarter post launch v. CTIC & ZGNX new products. Both $CTIC & $ZGNX were acquired for enterprise values of ~$1.7B
DAWN's Ojemda is outselling both by ~50%. We're not suggesting DAWN's enterprise value would be 50% more than CTIC/ZGNX, if ever acquired, but most investors believe drugs are worth some multiple and/or NPV of sales.
Exercise caution as DAWN's CEO, who went to Ivy League colleges, told investors last January 2025 at JP Morgan that DAWN's $500MM+ cash in the bank at the time may not be enough & that DAWN was risking Ojemda valuation gains on DAY-301 even though 95-98% of all new cancer drugs in Phase 1 trials are never approved
It used to be considered wisdom to sell a bio once a drug is approved. Read our post from yesterday that documented investors have lost ~90% of the time when comm'l-stage oncology focused bios like DAWN are not sold within 2 years of approval (since 1/1/13)
This is not investment advice. DAY-301 may work out
The odds are overwhelming $DAWN shareholder value is maximized via M&A. It used to be common sense smaller cap bios exit via M&A after approval. Everyone wins in M&A (especially healthcare costs in general via consolidation).
Per numerous studies from industry to government to academia, only 2 to 5% of new cancer drugs in Phase 1 trials are ever approved.
Instead of exiting via M&A, it appears DAWN mgmt is rolling the dice with the value created via Ojemda's approval on DAY-301. DAWN even hired a VP of R&D. Of course DAY-301 $LLY &/or other projects may work out but the odds are long. Enough patients have been treated with Ojemda to know if Firefly will succeed
For perspective on the opportunity for DAWN shareholders, the graph shows DAWN is comfortably outselling peer CTIC/Vonjo post approval. $CTIC exited via M&A @ $1.7B while DAWN's EV is not $300MM. That's a disgrace because DAWN mgmt & BOD are only obligated to maximize shareholder value.
This is not investment advice.
$XFOR Now it's BVF's turn to file their 13G
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1501697/000092189525002347/xslSCHEDULE_13G_X01/primary_doc.xml
Reporting 9.99% ownership. Numbers are complicated due to the various entities involved, plus the 9.99% ownership blocker. I'll do my best to summarize:
• BVF has beneficial ownership of 1,168,649 Shares & 9,917 pre-funded warrants. They are excluding 658,370 pre-funded warrants due to the 9.99% blocker
• BVF2 has beneficial ownership of 906,855 Shares. They are excluding 523,019 pre-funded warrants due to the 9.99% blocker
• Trading Fund OS has beneficial ownership of 123,369 Shares. They are excluding 71,152 pre-funded warrants due to the 9.99% blocker
Just for reference, BVF was the largest shareholder in $CTIC, the company that the new leadership team came from. Looks like they followed them to XFOR.
$XFOR New management team, which includes the former CEO, EVP, and CFO from $CTIC, a stock I was previously in. They sold CTIC to Sobi for $1.7b.
PIPE financing included some pretty big bio hedge funds. IIRC, both NEA and BVF were also big investors in CTIC when they were bought out by Sobi.
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/08/12/3131563/0/en/X4-Pharmaceuticals-Announces-60-Million-Equity-Financing-with-Concurrent-Changes-in-Management-and-Board-Leadership.html
$SNDX projected revenues compared to $VIE & $CTIC when they were acquired (attached graph).
SNDX is expected to generate more sales dollars than VIE when VIE was acquired for $2.7B & at a higher gross margin. SNDX's market cap = $1.1B at $12.50/share. VIE was acquired for 0.39X it cumulative 10 year revenue forecast while SNDX trades for less than 0.13X.
Of course we c/b wrong but we strongly suspect $INCY will acquire SNDX by year end & strongly encourage investors to do their own research.
Even CTIC, whose patent expired at the end of year 10 from its M&A date, was acquired for 0.33X its 10-year revenue forecast.
SNDX could end up in bankruptcy for all we know. We just like its risk v reward profile at a $1.1B market cap when analysts expect Revuforj & Niktimvo (or 50% of Niktimvo) to be north of $1B/year.
This is not investment advice. $XBI
$DAWN 's Ojemda sales have been 40-50% more in than $CTIC 's Vonjo every quarter since their respective FDA approvals as attached.
DAWN's enterprise value is ~$200MM which is a disgrace considering CTIC was acquired for $1.7B. Both products had ~12 years to patent expiration at FDA approval
Recall our previous posts noting 88% of comm'l-stage oncology focused bios that sell within 2 years of FDA approval generate meaningful returns for shareholders (v. share prices @ FDA approval). Shareholders lose big 85% of the time for those that do not sell within 2 years.
@ 1/25 JP Morgan, DAWN's CEO warned investors he was betting all the value created for shareholders via Ojemda's approval on DAY-301. Historically 95-98% of new cancer drugs in Phase 1 trials fail. DAWN's CEO also said half a billion dollars may not be enough. DAWN's CEO went to Ivy League schools so he likely has a much higher IQ than we do
This is not investment advice. DAWN reports this week so shares c/b volatile $XBI
$DAWN trades @ 0.09X cumulative 10-year analyst consensus projected revenues. DAWN's enterprise value is ~$150MM at $6.20/sh as of 5/30/25 which is only 0.02X 10-year projected sales
The attachment shows 3 oncology focused peers ($CTIC KDMN & $DCPH) were acquired @ 0.33 - 0.39X cumulative 10-year projected revenues per the forecasts prepared by the acquiree's mgmt. We cannot confirm DAWN is an appropriate peer.
In Jan. 2025 at JP Morgan, DAWN's CEO warned investors mgmt was going to risk the value generated by Ojemda's approval on DAY-301. DAWN's CEO came from $STRO that trades for a fraction of cash. Since historically 95 to 98% of new cancer drugs in Phase 1 fail, the odds appear 95 - 98% DAY-301 will fail. With Ojemda's patent expiring in June 2035 per a Google search which appears consistent with DAWN's 10K footnote, it appears DAWN shareholder value is most likely maximized via sale. We c/b wrong
It used to be considered common sense for small cap bios to sell after approval. $XBI
