Source: Financial Modeling Prep · peers by sector/industry
Insider activity (SEC Form 4)
No recent Form 4 filings on EDGAR — either no insider transactions reported recently or this isn't a SEC-registered issuer.
Valuation
Trading at 3.4× sales vs its 7.4× historical median P/S.
Fair value ≈ $15.46 · price $7.15 today
Undervalued · 54% below
Loading valuation…
Fair-value line = the stock's median historical P/S × sales per share. Price below the orange line = cheap vs its own history; above = expensive. Not investment advice.
The attachment compares $DCTH valuation as multiples of analyst 5 & 10-year consensus versus the M&A multiples paid to acquire GTHX (G1 Therapeutics), STML (Stemline Therapeutics) & YMAB. All 3 peers had, more or less, the same projected revenue & gross margin profile.
Does the math suggest that DCTH gains from here are limited to an M&A exit?
DCTH is anticipated to report data from (potential) new labels. Does DCTH analyst consensus incorporate revenues from new labels?
We loved DCTH at $9.00 per our previous posts but struggle to see the upside from here absent meaningful increases in DCTH revenue projections (assuming analyst estimates are credible).
We're simply asking the question because DCTH's revenue multiples suggest it is fairly valued, again assuming analyst estimates are credible. This is not investment advice.
$GTHX $XBI $IBB $YMAB
@Hero2Zero
No I do not know the historical odds of label expansions. It is a great question too. $BPMC had 2 major label expansion wins. $DCPH hoped its Qinlock therapy for GIST would go from 4L to 2L (or maybe it was 1L) and did not. $GTHX hoped Cosela would be approved in colorectal & one more but did not. We'll see what happens with $IMCR 's hopeful expansion into melanoma. If you ever find a source that'd be terrific to know.
There are multiple studies on likelihood of approval of new drugs. Attached is one that shows likelihoods of approval by therapy type & a NIH model from 1 phase to the next. We use these to model. You'll see success rates of new cancer drugs are the most dismal. MIT has a study lower than the nature.com article (less than 5%).
I wish I had a better answer. Thank you for the question. Good luck.
@simonsp Would be great for Johnny Snowflake @johnnygogogo and his autist buddy @Rabinovich - only 6 BOs behind me then. $ALBO €$CTIC $GTHX $ITCI $MYOV $SWTX
@BriOnH I don’t know how long you have been around but can tell you the B/O speculation is here & numbers are not outlandish. I just went through a Bio which got bought out despite failing phase 3 but addressed neutropenia which impacts (ed) Cancer patients like my late wife. Look up $GTHX board & you will see how I was castigated for talking B/O. All I am saying is - You never know. Have a good weekend. GL
$SANA Folks, Simple. These these bears/shorties are not accountable to anyone for the shit & lies they post but 91% Institutions who own this are accountable. Stay Long don’t worry about day to day gyrations. This will be like $GTHX a buyout soon at the very least🤑🚀 $VNDA $GERN $TARA
$RR Remember folks this dropped like a stone from $1.60 to .30 cents! Folks sold & left & turned into Bears overnight. I was asking for a bear thesis & met with silence. Just hatred for the stock & constant bitching! Buffet was right. But the fear. I did on this & $GTHX & WON!
$GTHX $SLS How did that work out for your short??
Pharmacosmos Group to Acquire G1 Therapeutics
G1’s Shareholders to Receive U.S. $7.15 per Share in Cash for a Total Equity Value of Approximately $405 Million
Sls will have similar news , soon to come to a theater near you
