$LYSCF The fact that Macquarie is willing to maintain an Outperform rating after a 52% year-to-date rally underscores conviction that the structural improvement in the investment case justifies further upside from already elevated levels.
$LYSCF The broker assigned a bullish rating, alongside a A$22.00 price target, betting that Beijing’s latest export restrictions will delay Western competitors and cement the Australian miner’s position as the critical non-Chinese rare earths supplier.
Macquarie’s thesis centres on the view that these export controls will materially delay and complicate Western rival projects attempting to build rare earths value chains outside China.
Companies like MP Materials and USA Rare Earth rely heavily on Chinese equipment, reagents, and technical know-how for their processing operations.
https://thebull.com.au/news/are-lynas-rare-earths-shares-still-a-buy/
$LYSCF Malaysia knocked back the LAMP expansion approval the same week, but Macquarie sees no hit to production for three to four years because existing quota already covers its base case
$LYSCF Macquarie lifted Lynas to Outperform with a $22.00 target, on a bet that China's new export controls delay the Western rare earths projects trying to compete with it
https://www.marketindex.com.au/news/macquarie-backs-lynas-as-chinas-export-squeeze-tightens-the-rare-earths-market
$LYSCF The timing is key here. Lynas, the biggest rare-earths producer outside China, runs mining and processing in Australia and Malaysia. That makes it one of the top listed proxies for Western supply-chain plans.
https://www.bez-kabli.pl/lynas-rare-earths-in-focus-friday-with-g7-aiming-at-china-reliance/
$LYSCF it is time for the SP to climb
https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/rare-earths-miners-brace-for-demand-spike-after-g7-vows-to-ditch-china-20260618-p607wi
$LYSCF Rare earths developers are bracing for a surge in demand after the leaders of seven major developed economies agreed to guarantee at least 40 per cent of the supply of materials needed for the production of high-tech magnets will come from producers outside China by the end of the decade.
The agreement, struck at the G7 conference in France, includes a target of ensuring half of all rare earths needed for the production of the magnets, used in everything from electric vehicles to wind turbines, is sourced from companies that are unconnected to Beijing.
Which means the manufacturing and defence offtakers will now be forming a long queue outside the door of every rare earths project developer who can deliver before 2030.
“There aren’t many of them.” Among those poised to benefit is Lynas Rare Earths, the Perth-headquartered miner that is one of the world’s biggest producers of the elements outside China.
$LYSCF Governments need to put their money where their mouth is. It's time for governments to back up their words with contracts.
“For Lynas, the next move will likely depend less on one day’s ASX tape and more on whether governments turn policy talk into bankable contracts. Without that, investors are still left with the old rare-earth problem: prices can rise fast when China supply is disrupted, and fall just as quickly when buyers step back.”
https://www.bez-kabli.pl/lynas-rare-earths-stock-near-a18-as-g7-minerals-pricing-debate-keeps-asx-rare-earths-in-focus/
$LYSCF Good for Lynas
https://m.engineeringnews.co.za/article/japan-gov-backs-new-shin-etsu-rare-earth-refinery-build-amid-chinas-export-control-2026-06-11
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Valuation
Trading at 15.5× earnings vs its 41.3× historical median P/E.
Fair value ≈ $33.16 · price $12.41 today
Undervalued · 63% below
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Fair-value line = the stock's median historical P/E × earnings. Price below the orange line = cheap vs its own history; above = expensive. Not investment advice.
