$OTGLY why I’ve been shorting this
1. Old guard that made Witcher 3 and the original cyberpunk are gone (this includes lead devs) so lost DNA, think BioWare etc
2. 800 million budget so it has to sell million of copies day 1
3. You play as a woman where you romanticize npc’s
4 brand damage from the Netflix series (think Star Wars etc)
5 it’s now been in development for 6 years, Witcher 3 came out in 2015 (do people still care that played 1,2 or 3 ?)
6 Witcher 4 is supposed to start a new trilogy (before they’ve released 4 is usually a trap)
7 will people buy a cdpr game on release after cyberpunk ?
8 ciri died or became an empress in 3 ..
$OTGLY was really hoping for this to pop so I could enter a short, I doubt the majority of male audience will want to play a girl in a game where you romance npcs, ofcourse gays/trans people will love it but I expect lower than expected sales even though people love Witcher 3/cyberpunk just look at god of war atm
$OTGLY There is real value here at the current market cap of 6 billion. Witcher 4 will do very well, but the big deal here to me is expanding the studios. We’re going to get games released a lot faster then before meaning further growth. Loved Phantom Liberty, I trust the new studio. Microsoft bought bethesda for 7.5 billion and frankly this is a much better company. To me this is a very safe investment, a world war could start and people would still buy video games.
$OTGLY I was out st $20 . I suspected it was just a road down to $ 3 again. I was right . Lazy company, sorry Social Club. I think they lost spirit to win and dominate. It just a company of little boys and girls.
The future is already here . 👇
$OTGLY F it, AMD treated me so well that I'm gonna put 5k now even though the news likely means witcher 4 isn't coming until 2028. With the anniversary event tomorrow I was thinking the DLC would be announced for sure right after, was even planning on buying just to do a trade on it for the reveal. The drop today is too good to pass up. Nearly 100% of this stock is owned by retail investors and the CD red board meaning selloffs are not likely. Retail investors bought because they love the games and more likely to have diamond hands. So, probably early but if the DLC is announced for sometime first quarter in 2027 it won't be a problem. If it's later then could be a problem. Summer Game Fest is next week so outside shot we get a reveal on the DLC and release date, that would be great.
$OTGLY mark the calendar…
https://www.ign.com/articles/cd-projekt-announces-official-the-witcher-3-blood-and-wine-special-anniversary-stream-as-dlc-rumors-swirl
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Valuation
Trading at 13.0× earnings vs its 8.5× historical median P/E.
Fair value ≈ $9.71 · price $14.77 today
Overvalued · 52% above
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Fair-value line = the stock's median historical P/E × earnings. Price below the orange line = cheap vs its own history; above = expensive. Not investment advice.
