$DRTS, $NVAX, $MRTX, and $IDYA All dropping data at ASCO this weekend the kind of readouts that move stocks on Monday.
$DRTS presenting survival data from their solid tumor trials — if the numbers show what early signals suggested, this changes the conversation entirely. Market hasn't priced this in yet.
$NVAX showing updated combo vaccine data — beaten down long enough that any strong efficacy numbers have real upside leverage.
$MRTX dropping new KRAS inhibitor data — one clean readout and the shorts are going to feel it.
$IDYA presenting on IDE397 — small float means moves can get violent fast if the numbers impress.
Monday open could get very interesting. Not financial advice.
$MRTX (2022)
Bought private KRAS asset
Stock -25%
Eventually became part of $12 B Bristol buyout
$SGEN (2019)
Bought Cascadian (private) for $614 M
Stock dropped 15% on announcement
Assets became TUKYSA → $2 B+ in sales
$TPST worth a shot .... Management can't suck that bad at shopping
💥 $MREO loaded with cash (~$90M), no debt, no need to dilute. Float is tight, volume creeping up.
Biggest bull case? Partnership PR could drop any day. Mgmt has hinted — and when it hits, this rips.
Low risk, high reward setup. One deal and shorts get cooked. 🧨
$MRTX $IMMU
$CORT $IMGN $MRTX $SLS Dangerous Time to be a short on SLS at this stage due to the fact Sellas GPS Regal Pivotal Registrational phase 3 study in AML CR2 patients have entered Median survival of 20 months now compared to vs. Historical Median Survival of 6 Months for Conventional Therapy, as Reported in Similar Phase 2 Study -
*** Life Sciences Triggers Interim Analysis in Phase 3 REGAL Trial of GPS in Acute Myeloid
Leukemia
12/10/2024 5:30am
- Study Reaches Pre-Specified Threshold of 60 Events (Deaths) Initiating the Interim Analysis -
SELLAS Life Sciences Announces Positive
Outcome of Interim Analysis for its Pivotal Phase 3 REGAL Trial of GPS in Acute Myeloid Leukemia
1/23/2025 5:10am
GPS Regal Pivotal Registrational phase 3 study results are due any day now. Overwhelmingly Positive results = $40.00+
I believe all the BAT patients in the GPS Regal have unfortunately passed away due to the high toxicity of current BAT that leads to frequent hospitalization and death after. Chart 👇
$SLS $IMGN $CORT $MRTX
SELLAS is nearing final results from a pivotal Phase 3 trial for its lead immunotherapy, GPS, targeting AML (acute myeloid leukemia) patients in second remission — a group with no approved treatments today.
🧬GPS has already shown a median overall survival (OS) >13.5 months, compared to just 6–8 months with current standards of care, per top investigators.
📈 The trial has passed key milestones:
• ✅ Enrolled 128 patients (64 GPS / 64 control)
• ✅ Trial began in 2021 — many GPS patients are still alive after 19+ months
• ✅ Independent review committee (IDMC) already eliminated futility at 60 events
But there’s more:
💥GPS also triggers immune response in 80% of patients
💥SLS009, the second drug, shows preclinical promise in both AML and colorectal cancer
💥Market cap: still under $200M
💣Final data readout expected soon.
🎯If successful, we’re looking at a transformational shift in AML treatment—and a company with billion-dollar potential.
⏳The clock is ticking.
The attachment provides snapshots of the "Selected Precedent Transaction Analysis" from $SWTX preliminary 14A filing dated 5/15/25 compared to the 14A filing from $MRTX dated 11/2/23. Links are provided below to both (page 52/53).
We are not experts nor qualified to opine on valuation matters but it appears Centerview Partners was engaged as the third-party expert bankers for both SWTX & MRTX. Centerview appears to calculate different Year 4 M&A revenue multiples paid for the $GBT $CCXI & the GWPH M&A transactions. Are we wrong?
Centerview Partners is generally recognized as the experts in biopharma M&A. We're not challenging their work. We're simply hoping to understand why the Year 4 multiples would be different to one transaction versus the other? Explanations are welcome. Thank you. $XBI
This is for entertainment purposes only. We may be mischaracterizing these data points.
Link to SWTX 14A:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1773427/000110465925049624/tm2513796-1_prem14a.htm#tBOTM
Link to MRTX 14A:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1576263/000114036123051002/edge20012673x2_defm14a.htm
$SWTX filed their preliminary 14A filing with the SEC that includes, among other things, copies of the financial forecasts provided to potential suitors. The attachment provides a basic overview of growth assumptions & gross margin forecasts.
We will compare the enterprise value paid to acquire SWTX as multiples of their financial forecasts to like multiples from recent peer commercial-stage biopharma M&A transactions over the weekend.
SWTX amended their forecast in April 2025 from the versions provided in February 2025 (which we assume was the start of the real negotiation). Note the percentage change to the revenue forecast by year.
Assuming the final EV paid was ~$3.5B, this was roughly 2.7X SWTX's FY2028 (or Year 4) projected revenues of 1.32B. Recall in the $MRTX transaction, Centerview identified peers acquired at a median Year 4 multiple of 6.0X. SWTX's gross margin is lower these peers.
Again, much more to come. $XBI
$INBS golden cross ❎ ahead!!! With new bullflag and 3$ test 😉
Without the 2$ closed offering we would stay now above 3$ I bet, but we don’t have except near therm a new offering now after fda new.
This could be like $MDGL $MRTX where I was in from the start and sold too early 👀😂
Fingers crossed 🤞
$DAWN appears a textbook case on the need for consolidation in commercial-stage oncology focused biopharma. Consider...
If;
1. DAWN's Ojemda is a $900MM - $1.0B/year drug by FY2030 as appears the consensus of analysts AND if;
2. Peer commercial-stage oncology focused bios are worth a 4.7X+ Year 4 (FY2028 not 2030 for DAWN) M&A revenue multiple as Centerview noted in its review of precedent transactions of $MRTX peers (per the DEF14A filing on the BMY acquisition) AND if;
3. Ojemda's clinical value proposition & competitive profile warrant a peer revenue multiple
THEN WTF?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0TVXTcWA4SY
This is not investment advice. $XBI
$MRTX Mirati Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRTX): A Promising Oncology Company Navigating the Complexities of Drug Development and Commercialization https://beyondspx.com/article/mirati-therapeutics-inc-nasdaq-mrtx-a-promising-oncology-company-navigating-the-complexities-of-drug-development-and-commercialization
$IOVA is off ~25% the 5 days. IOVA reported Q3 sales that exceeded estimates by ~10% & re-affirmed FY25 guidance of $450-$475MM & "significant" growth in FY26. Most important, IOVA reported compelling results of Lifileucel in certain lung cancers & now anticipates approval in FY27. While estimated populations of these lung cancers were not disclosed, it appears reasonable to assume the TAM is higher than 2nd line melanoma
At $9.00/share, IOVA's market cap = $2.75B or 6.1X the low end of IOVA's FY25 guidance with "significant" growth forecast in FY26. Centerview noted a median year 4 multiple of 6.0X of comm'l-stage oncology peers in its $MRTX opinion. Put simply, IOVA risk/reward profile appears compelling
Some say IOVA's drop is due to IOVA re-disclosing Q2/early Q3 use of its ATM. The attachment documents fully diluted IOVA shares outstanding as of 9/30 & 6/30/24...which are up only 1.6%
This is not investment advice. There c/b other reasons IOVA is off
