Source: Financial Modeling Prep · peers by sector/industry
Insider activity (SEC Form 4)
No recent Form 4 filings on EDGAR — either no insider transactions reported recently or this isn't a SEC-registered issuer.
Valuation
Trading at 27.8× sales vs its 15.5× historical median P/S.
Fair value ≈ $72.14 · price $129.46 today
Overvalued · 79% above
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Fair-value line = the stock's median historical P/S × sales per share. Price below the orange line = cheap vs its own history; above = expensive. Not investment advice.
$BPMC Galectin Therapeutics (NASDAQ: GALT) is presenting new clinical analyses of its Phase 2b NAVIGATE trial for its lead drug, belapectin, at the EASL Congress. The presentations at the European Association for the Study of the Liver focus on preventing esophageal varices and improving liver biomarkers in patients with MASH cirrhosis.
$ENTX New Cap Notes Report: Bones of a Bet: Why the Smart Money That Backed ChemoCentryx, Blueprint and Protagonist Just Put Its Chips on Entera Bio
https://capnotes.beehiiv.com/p/bones-of-a-bet-why-the-smart-money-that-backed-chemocentryx-blueprint-and-protagonist-just-put-its-c
The fund that backed ChemoCentryx ($3.7B exit), Blueprint Medicines ($9.1B exit) and Protagonist Therapeutics ($5.9B+ valuation) just invested in Entera Bio – a $54 million company developing the world’s first oral bone-building pill, with Phase 3 on the launchpad and an FDA response due in weeks. $CCXI $BPMC $PTGX $VKTX
$SNDX trades @ 1.8X FY29 (Year 4) analyst consensus revenue estimates.
What’s a potential SNDX M&A valuation? Centerview Partners noted 6 SWTX (not SNDX but SWTX) peers were acquired @ an average Year 4 revenue multiple of 3.8X & 10 $BPMC peers at an average 6.3X Year 4 multiple (screenshots attached).
We believe it is self-evident, due to obvious synergies, $INCY is the most likely SNDX acquisition candidate. Hence, it appears there is potential meaningful upside to SNDX shareholders if INCY acquires SNDX at a market Year 4 multiple, ASSUMING SNDX FY29 REVENUE ESTIMATES ARE CREDIBLE (if not then all bets are off).
Our simple question, do SNDX investors believe SWTX is the better SNDX peer or is BPMC? We believe SWTX is the better SNDX peer (but of course we could be wrong).
INCY's Jakafi generates roughly half of its annual sales. Jakafi’s patent expires in 12/28. INCY’s FY29 (Year 4) revenue multiple is 4.7X, after this is after Jakafi goes off-patent.
$IBB $XBI
$COGT this can be the next $BPMC they have the better drug, and if both readouts are positive in the next month or two, I bet big pharma buys them out. They won't let $SNY go unchallenged.
Raymond James reiterated $COGT at a Strong Buy rating, $30 price target and said, remain Strong Buy rated on $COGT shares and highlight herein some additional commentary following our Strategy Series chat with CEO Andy Robbins last week.
With three important bezuclastinib 4Q25 catalysts on tap (pivotal PEAK P3 data in GIST, pivotal APEX P2 data in AdvSM and bezu's NonAdvSM NDA filing), this name has been the subject of meaningful inbound investor interest.
On that note, we reviewed the set-up into PEAK (notably the pre-specified number of progression events have not yet been reached), and APEX, as well as commercial planning for the anticipated NonAdvSM 3Q/4Q26 approval/launch.
Bottom line, we continue to view bezuclastinib as a best-in-class agent in systemic mastocytosis and continue to like the chances for a positive PEAK readout in GIST, unlocking a $1.5B revenue opportunity that we currently do not model.
$BPMC - $SNY
The attached graph compares $CORT analyst consensus revenue estimates for FY25 - FY34 to the revenue forecasts prepared by ITCI, $VRNA & $BPMC management/BOD, over the same 10 year period, when they were acquired earlier in FY2025.
CORT's revenue forecast appears roughly consistent with the 3 peers acquired earlier this year at roughly the same gross margin profile. CORT trades at 0.27X their 10-year analyst consensus where the 3 peers were acquired at 0.36X to 0.41X.
We know the PDUFA for Relacorilant in Cushing's Syndrome = 12/30/2025.
Can any CORT investor share then the data read is expected in platinum resistant ovarian cancer?
This is not investment advice.
@Hero2Zero
No I do not know the historical odds of label expansions. It is a great question too. $BPMC had 2 major label expansion wins. $DCPH hoped its Qinlock therapy for GIST would go from 4L to 2L (or maybe it was 1L) and did not. $GTHX hoped Cosela would be approved in colorectal & one more but did not. We'll see what happens with $IMCR 's hopeful expansion into melanoma. If you ever find a source that'd be terrific to know.
There are multiple studies on likelihood of approval of new drugs. Attached is one that shows likelihoods of approval by therapy type & a NIH model from 1 phase to the next. We use these to model. You'll see success rates of new cancer drugs are the most dismal. MIT has a study lower than the nature.com article (less than 5%).
I wish I had a better answer. Thank you for the question. Good luck.
$COGT patience will pay off. Money here can triple or quadruple by EOY. Bezuclastinib and $BPMC Atvakit will be the leaders in the space. And if COGT's APEX and PEAK trials show promising results (2nd half of this year) this company is gonna blow. $SNY
Citi⬆️ $COGT $22 from $15/reit Buy
"Recent top-line results for bezuclastinib's (bezu) SUMMIT trial (our recap HERE) in non-advanced systemic mastocytosis (NonAdvSM) was well-received, propelling Cogent up 69% (+6% for the $XBI; see our Catalyst Watch HERE)."
$BPMC - $SNY
"Investors are beginning to see bezu as an upgrade over Blueprint's Ayvakit.
Though SUMMIT's top-line readout is behind us, other
catalysts remain ahead. Key symptom and biomarker data at a future medical meeting (perhaps #ASH in December) should further bolster bezu's case.
Beyond this, we highlight two additional upcoming registrational readouts, with advanced SM (AdvSM) from the APEX trial in 2H25 and GIST from the PEAK trial by YE25.
Like SUMMIT, investors are materially underestimating the opportunity for both.
We expect views on these updates will shift positively, fueling further upside.
We also highlight Cogent's participation in Citi's 2025 Biopharma Back to School Conference in Boston, Sept 2-3. Register HERE."
