It was 1 year ago today $SLNO got approval for Vykat.
SLNO's multiples suggest SLNO is severely undervalued if, and this is a GARGANTUAN if, but if analyst consensus revenue estimates are credible.
For perspective, the attachment compares SLNO 7-year analyst consenses to the 7 year revenue forecasts prepared by the mgmt/BOD of 10 peer commercial-stage bios acquired within 15 months of FDA approval.
Note analysts forecast SLNO to generate more revenues over the next 7 years than RETA mgmt/BOD forecast when $RETA was acquired for an enterprise value of ~$7.0B. RETA mgmt/BOD projected 91% gross margins where SLNO FY25 gross margin was 98%.
By itself, does this not suggest SLNO is deeply undervalued. Recall $DAWN traded for virtually no enterprise value last summer & was just acquired for over $2B
This is not investment advice. We do not understand Vykat's clinical value proposition, risk nor whether it's worth peer multiples.
$XBI $IBB
@ablle No the FDA did not. 1 Rogue FDA employee who went against the FDA AdCom decision, who ALSO presided over approving $RETA 's drug (which showed almost zero clinical benefit) against AdCom recommendation, approved it. He retired immediately after giving Reata their approval. Reata a few months later was bought by who? Biogen lol
@Doom_Gloom_AR Want to quad down on dumb?
VP has clearly stated he is looking for functional outcomes, not a slight sig sep for a period of a few months on a neuro play. $RETA should not have been approved (but I won on that one knowing they'd green light it, if you follow us you should know this), but was on questionable data.
What the companies you mentioned had in common was a lack of evidence on gold standard endpoints.
It's not about RCT or not, it's having a gold standard efficacy endpoint.
Functional outcomes are what he cares about.
Did $REPL prove on OS? no, it wasn't studied.
Did $CAPR or $SRPT have meaningful functional improvements? No, they all showed no effect. SRPT especially was on of the biggest scams I've ever seen, and screamed on that for 10 years.
$QURE is already in alignment with FDA here. I kindly suggest you stop being lazy, read VP's work and what he is looking for, and listen to QURE last earnings call, or short the boat out of this.
@johnny_ballgame BP has been paying 3rd parties to short companies they want to acquire cheap for 25 yrs...Last example was $RETA 226-19-166 buyout same bs...
$CNSP CNSP’s latest 10Q filing reveals a massive hidden value that investors should not overlook! With milestone payments valuing shares at $36.48–$48.64, this sets a baseline valuation far above the current market price. The Glioblastoma (GBM) market is $10.3B, and with only 75M O/S, a fair market cap projection could push CNSP to $165/share if Berubicin captures significant market share.
$RETA who is CNSP's collaborator and partner in Berucibin was acquired by Biogen ( BIIB) for $172/Shares.
https://stocktwits.com/invbond/message/603626439
With the pivotal trial results due any day, Berubicin—already showing strong early efficacy—could become the de facto standard for GBM treatment. The CEO's unwavering confidence and the strategic milestone structure highlight CNSP’s massive upside.
With commercialization and drug launch of Berubicin already under way since 11/2024 by Amy Maher who is CNSP BOD and Moderna's CMO, Amy Maher, CEO has already set the stage with the confidence from his recent presentation that Berubicin "will be approved" - Only drug in the space that has successfully crossed the blood brain barrier.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/amy-mahery_im-thrilled-to-share-that-ive-joined-moderna-activity-7292330033761714178-YrOP
https://www.biospace.com/biotech-commercialization-leader-amy-mahery-to-join-cns-pharmaceuticals-board-of-directors
Read the 10Q carefully—CNSP has already set the stage for what’s coming! 🚀
From the last 10Q:
"The Company also agreed to make milestone payments to Cortice in either cash or shares of Company common stock (at Cortice’s option) upon:
(i) meeting the primary endpoint a pivotal trial for a licensed product – either $15.0 million or 411,132 shares of Company common stock; [$36.48/Share]
(ii) FDA acceptance of an New Drug Application for a licensed product – either $30.0 million or 822,264 shares of Company common stock; [$36.48/Share]
(iii) the first commercial sale in the United States of a licensed product – either $45.0 million or 1,233,395 shares of Company common stock; and [$36.48/Share]
(iv) the first commercial sale in Japan of a licensed product – either $10.0 million or 205,566 shares of Company common stock. [$48.64/Share]"
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1729427/000168316824008125/cns_i10q-093024.htm
$CNSP My history with $RETA before it was acquired by Biogen for $172/share
It’s now CNSP turn to repeat the history .
I end up with CNSP because of $RETA
@dolongs Like $VKTX 4 before 98? How about $RETA 226-19-166 buyout? How about $SMMT? 1.20 fall of 2023 runs to 6 tanks again to 2 35 after...Numerous others...
JMP Securities reiterated $LRMR
Market Outperform-$21, says
'We continue to view nomlabofusp as the most promising FA candidate as it addresses the root cause of disease and could be approved next year for a broad range of patients.'
( $BIIB $RETA ( $PTCT))
JMP said in it research note:
@RNEK @Redposition If u recall, they sold off their manufacturing plant, investment bankers might think that is "lean and mean." I don't care what so-called doctors think here - FDA neuro division approves everything, and there is more evidence this construct works than what $SRPT or even $RETA showed. Don't be surprised to see an acquisition here, sooner over later.
@nobz18 @prevclose I'll fill you in though Doc. First, tell me how and why $RETA 's drug was approved? I also cleaned up on that one. Does this construct of $QURE have risk? Of course it does. but I frankly think you are ignorant concerning FDA neuro division. Even with a very small N, the neuro division here has a clear history of approving drugs in wide-open unmet needs. Do I agree with them on a moral level? No, RETA and $SRPT should not have received approval if it was up to me, but $QURE should receive an AA, based on safety profile and dose dependency. Now, whether or not it receives full approval is another story. I honestly think you do not have experience in this and/or something else. I dont bet on or against a construct based on what I think of it. I base on what I think an FDA depo will do, not what I would do. In my nearly 30 years of experience in this, I've met a lot of people with your mindset. My concern for $QURE is management mis-stepping on something, not FDA.
